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Credit risk real estate

Credit growth for construction is 17.15%, high loan growth in construction sector means high level of construction. But building growth for residential housing is much stronger than building for uninhabitable housing.


At the Vietnam Securities Discussion held over the weekend, TS. Vo Tri Thanh, former deputy director of the Central Institute for Economic Research, said that the SBV should take measures to monitor cash flow in high risk areas such as securities and real estate.

The reason is that total real estate loans are about 8% of total credit, but real consumer loans are mostly real estate loans, if the total is over 10%.

An outlook on current investment channels, Economic Expert, PhD. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that the current gold market is not attractive, even the price is low; The foreign exchange market is not attractive as the central bank adjusts daily exchange rates. Meanwhile, banks are now rapidly increasing their outstanding loans, especially consumer credit and real estate credit.

TS. Nguyen Tri Hieu.


According to economist, Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong, has a close relationship between the stock market and real estate. SBV figures show that credit growth was above 9% in the first half of this year, while deposit growth was 5.9%. Thus, credit growth is higher than mobilization.

"Where did that money go?" Nguyen Minh Phong asked the question. "I think money has flowed into stocks and real estate. If this situation continues from year to year, banks may face liquidity problems. "

Mr. Phong said that the real estate market will be positive in the end of the year in two directions. Firstly, the demand for real estate remains high, especially in the low-cost housing segment and resort real estate. Second, SOE equitization, bad debt, M & A create a wave of real estate, which is also an opportunity for investors.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Duc Hung Linh, Director of Analysis and Investment Consultancy, Saigon Securities Incorporated, said that it is necessary to have concrete data on credit to real estate.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Hung Linh.


"The specific numbers are hard to find, but studying the raw data, I can conclude the money on construction and real estate a lot. Specifically, credit growth for construction is 17.15%, high credit growth in construction sector means high level of construction. But building growth for home for housing is much stronger than building for non-residents, said Nguyen Duc Hung Linh.

Specifically, when individuals borrow money to buy a house, in the event of a bad deal, a house worth 3 billion, customers borrow 70% of the house value, equivalent to 2.1 billion. Selling a house worth 3 billion VND at the price of 2.1 billion is quite simple, the processing will be much easier than the investor loan trillion and can not repay.

Previously, the developers built to sell surfing fast, but after the real estate bubble burst, investors were more careful, business strategies have also changed, they also have to calculate such segments. Which to sell for ease. Therefore, Linh said that the risks associated with real estate credit are not without the not as high as before.

According to Le Dang Doanh, the stock market will continue to grow at the end of the year as the number of listed SOEs will attract capital into the market, as the integration process continues. For real estate, each segment has different growth rates such as low-priced housing loans, low-income housing rising. Office real estate began to show signs of redundancy. This shows that not every market segment grows.

 

According to Nguyen Tuan
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