Increase credit to increase GDP?

Delegates proposed increasing aggregate demand to ensure GDP growth of 6.7% this year...

"In my opinion, the solution to accelerate rapid growth is to increase the aggregate demand of the economy, namely the increase in the amount of money against the plan, corresponding to an increase of about 2% total outstanding credit "- deputies Le Thu Ha (Lao Cai), speaking at the session discussed the economic situation - social Congress, bright 9/6.

While the Government is determined to keep the GDP target at 6.7% this year, many delegates say it is unlikely to be met, Ha expressed his consensus and supported the government's determination to dismantle To overcome all difficulties and obstacles, to take many measures to boost the GDP growth rate for 2017 to reach 6.7% as planned. This, according to delegates, is to create the necessary conditions to achieve a growth rate of 6.5-7% for the whole 5-year plan 2016-2020.

Delegate analysis, currently, with GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 only 5.1% lower than 5.5% of the same period last year and far away from the target of 6.7% of both male. Some experts say that this is an impossible target, there is no way to achieve it because to achieve this goal, the remaining quarter growth must be over 7%, but this is not possible because to grow It must maintain high productivity, but productivity of Vietnam is going down.

With this viewpoint, the Government needs to create a breakthrough so that in the last three quarters, the average growth rate of 7% / quarter, ensuring the whole year reach 6.7%, and create momentum for 2018.

Assumption is not quantitative, but it is important to set both quantitative and qualitative goals equally, given that GDP is one of the four most important macroeconomic targets. If 2017 still does not meet the target of 6.7% growth, two years failed to achieve the growth target and the remaining three years will be more difficult.

Looking further, if in the 20 years from 2016 to 2035 that Vietnam's economy does not achieve average GDP growth rate of 7% per year, so that GDP per head increases by 6% per year, Vietnam is no longer able to escape. From the middle income trap. Therefore, the goal of the 5-year plan 2016-2020 is very important for the 20-year roadmap, Ha emphasized.

Referring to the forecast, if there is no new factor, the GDP in 2017 will only increase 6.2%, compared with the target of 6.7%, the deficit will be 0.5%. It is possible to exploit this solution to increase this 0.5% but not negatively affect other macroeconomic targets such as inflationary pressures, public debt, bad debts of commercial banks. tomorrow.

Given that the need to increase aggregate demand increased particularly around 2% of total outstanding credit , Ms. Ha asserts a 2% increase will not cause monetary inflation by core inflation hitherto favorable movements. In the first quarter of 2017, core inflation rose only 1.66% compared to 2016. Even in 2017, CPI increased by 4% on average over 2016 but less than 5% Growth stimulation is not disturbing - delegates analysis.

However, Ms. Ha noted that with this solution must not be adjusted to raise electricity prices and prices of other public services such as health and education from now until the end of the year.

The next solution discussed by the Lao Cai delegate is to stimulate increased consumption of population and private investment through measures to expand consumer credit , remove administrative procedures to promote the construction Construction of private investment, especially the construction investment procedures of enterprises.

In particular, fast disbursement measures, public investment in 2017 including the sale of BOT, BT, transport infrastructure projects. If the end of the third quarter of 2017 disbursed 70% of investment capital in the year, the impact will be very large in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The deputy also emphasized that the biggest bottleneck is still the administrative procedure. "Although the Prime Minister is determined to reform, in practice, administrative procedures remain a constraint to economic growth, particularly in the field of construction and investment. Waiting for relevant ministries and sectors to approve the procedure is very frustrating and frustrating not only investors but also local authorities. According to the Investment Law, the new construction law, the number of projects must pass through the Ministry , More branches than before "- deputies reflected.

According to Ha, if the bottleneck of the administrative procedure is unstoppable, it will create resilience in growth.

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