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Credit rose the most 8 years, should worry about the "bubble"?

According to BVSC, high credit growth is a positive signal, showing a good absorption of capital of the economy, but also raised concerns about the risk of credit bubble appearing, as happened. Out of the 2009 period when credit growth is hot.

 


Credit to end of April has reached 5.76% - the highest in 8 years - is the number has been released by Governor Le Minh Hung at the meeting of the businessmen's "Business with the Prime Minister" meeting.

Previously, other agencies have also come up with different statistics, however, showing a surge in credit growth in the first four months of this year.

Specifically, at the regular government press conference in April 2017 in Hanoi on May 4, 1977, Minister, Head of the Office of the Government, Mr. Mai Tien Dung, said credit in the first 4 months Year on year growth of 4.86%. Meanwhile, according to estimates by the National Committee for NEMA, by the end of April 2017, credit rose by 5.2%, much higher than 4.2% in the same period of 2016. According to the report of the National Committee for Family Development In the first quarter of 2017, the SOCB group led the growth rate by 4.9%. Many commercial banks boosted credit quite high in Q1: Lienvietpostbank (11%), Kien Long Commercial Bank (10.3%), SCB (9%), ACB (8.3%), Vietcombank %).

So the updated data released by Governor Le Minh Hung recently is the highest credit growth in the first four months of this year, also the highest level in the past eight years since the credit period increased Hot leader in 2009.

High credit growth is a positive sign, reflecting a good absorption of capital by the economy, but also raising concerns about the risk of a credit bubble appearing, as has happened during the period. 2009 when credit growth hot.

However, compared to 2009, it is possible to assess credit at this stage in terms of better quality than the proportion that is largely incorporated into the agricultural sector rather than the non- Producers such as securities, real estate...Deputy Governor of the State Bank, Mr. Dao Minh Tu, said that 88% of total credit has been focused on the manufacturing sector. For example, high-tech agricultural credit, shortly from the government has reached 26,000 billion.

In general, "hot" credit growth, focusing on niche areas, is a positive sign for the economy. However, BVSC believes that this issue needs to be monitored and monitored closely. Regulators should ensure that credit flows are efficient and flowing to the right place and place, thereby supporting economic growth but not allowing asset bubbles to materialize.

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