Hot Growth Credit: Be cautious with "bubble"

High credit growth shows that the demand for capital of the economy is huge, but the quality and efficiency of credit flows is a matter of concern.

Since the beginning of the year, credit growth has reached 6.53% higher than the same period last year. This, on the one hand, shows that the capital needs of the economy are huge, but on the other hand it is creating pressure and potential risk, especially when it goes to non-priority areas, raising concerns. About the "bubble" of credit.

Only in the first quarter, commercial banks with high credit growth rates such as LienVietPostBank increased 11%, Saigon Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SCB) gained 9%, Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB) increased 8.3%, Vietcombank increased by 8%, VietinBank increased 5.6% compared to last year.


Credit growth was higher than previous years, showing a very strong demand for capital and relatively good capital absorption. However, the most important is the quality, efficiency of credit lines. Because if credit is still poured into areas like real estate or BOT projects ... it will be potentially very risky.

PGS.TS. Nguyen Thi Mui, a finance and banking expert, said that credit growth was 6.53%, but if it went up in the priority sectors, the production and business sectors created products and created It is a positive sign for the economy to develop.

"But if the credit goes up in the potentially risky area, the real estate sector, which is high-end or high-end resorts, is a worrying issue," said Associate Professor Nguyen Thi Nguyen. Odor indicates

With the banking system, strong credit growth over the past time is also creating pressure and potential risks. Because in order to meet the rising demand for credit, the bank must also increase mobilization to obtain loans. In fact, credit growth has increased rapidly, while capital mobilization has not increased in proportion.

Accordingly, capital mobilization in the first five months of this year increased by 4.5%. Meanwhile, credit growth of 6.53%. Obviously there is a degree of warping between lending and raising capital.

Capital mobilization is lower than lending by more than 2% and this difference puts pressure on liquidity and interest rates. It can be seen that many commercial banks have raised their deposit rates for more than 12 months and issued certificates of deposit.

According to TS. Can Van Luc - Member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, with credit growth now, is expected to reach credit growth of 18%. There are no worries about the credit bubble, however, the State Bank of Vietnam needs to be cautious and careful to divert credit lines to priority areas.

"In the immediate future, it can not be subjective, the State Bank should monitor and control the flow of credit into production and business. Credit adjustments for some commercial banks may be considered. It could be argued that the increase in credit and risk control, which does not increase the credit growth target of 18% this year, would increase. In addition, stick to the market to have policies to draw money, pump the potential to ensure liquidity and interest rates are not pushed up, "TS. Can Van Luc stated.

State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said that credit growth in the early months of the year was high compared to the same period of the last several years, contributing positively to the production and business activities. Right from the beginning of the year, the State Bank has set a target for credit growth this year at about 18%.

Credit quality has made appropriate adjustments, with economies of scale, about 80% of total credit focusing mainly on business, not real estate. For example, high-tech agricultural credit, shortly from the government, has reached 26,000 billion VND.

Nguyen Thi Hong, deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, said that the credit institutions system focused mainly on preferential credit for production and business activities. paste. Especially strict control of credit in the areas of potential risks such as real estate or investment projects BT, BOT ...

"Although the State Bank of Vietnam does not set specific credit limits to prohibit lending in these areas to avoid risks, the State Bank of Vietnam always reminds credit institutions to strictly control the security to ensure security. the whole system. Currently, credit in real estate growth slows down over the same period in 2016. This result is right and hit with the policy of monetary policy of the State Bank and the policy of the Government, "she said. Hong said.

Creditworthiness will continue to increase strongly at the end of the year. To avoid the risk of credit bubble, experts recommend credit institutions to be cautious about loan structure and not to race. Credit, easy to assess the production plan of the business or ability to repay, resulting in bad debt incurred.

On the side, the State Bank strictly controls the credit flow into priority areas, prudently raising credit to contribute to the inflation control and macroeconomic stabilization.

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